Wednesday, 15 April 2009

We don't learn from our mistakes: how to make money from our mistakes.

If one looks throughout the vast amount of history and studies human created disasters in detail. They will come upon a unifying theme, that we consistently make the same mistakes. Generations repeat the mistakes of previous generations. It is my belief that we will continue to do so. 

A particularly hilarious mistake are bubbles: we cause asset inflation and then cry when these bubbles pop.

No doubt, these mistakes will be repeated in India and China as they develop. They will repeat the mistakes of Europe and the USA as they developed throughout the 19th, 20th Century and now the 21st Century. 

They will develop property bubbles, stock market bubbles and who-knows-what bubbles. All of which will be destined to pop - economies have inevitably correct themselves. Institutions such as Central Banks and government spending try to prevent this from occuring. All they do is delay, it becomes a matter of when not if. 

Taking the above, how can we use this to our advantage? The answer is simple: through effective timing. Buy before the bubble develops or it is in the early stages, buy some more, keep buying and finally buy till you can leverage no more. At this point the bubble may appear to be breaking down and slowly deflating, alas, it will not institutions will intervene on your behalf to continue this inflation. After this point most deals and contract which are done are largely fallacious. This my friend, is when you should exit and deleverage

People will judge you negatively, they will be suspicious of you. Going against the herd is not rational to them, and this is exactly what you are doing.  

Take that money you have made, treat yourself to a holiday, cut back on your work. Spend it on your passions. I would buy myself a unnecessarily large drum kit.  

With what's left over construct yourself a recession proof business or at least one that can take advantage of the negative fluctuations in the business cycle. Perhaps a bank like Andrew Beale. Start a mutual/(hedge) fund. 

Most importantly, have fun along the way.

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